The International Monetary Fund (IMF) pared the global GDP forecast, yet again! However, the markets continued to trudge higher on the back of a ‘risk on’ with volatility of Brexit shock waves calmed; VIX has fallen 26% since Brexit vote. Even Mario Draghi, ECB President, while maintaining status quo on ECB policy, acknowledged the resilience of markets in the aftermath of the UK referendum.
On domestic front, despite a late start, the monsoon has been normal (zero deficit as of July 21) with at least 30 of the 36 subdivisions receiving normal and or above-normal rains. Sowing has picked up substantially, with slight shift in favor of pulses and oilseeds (positive for inflationary outlook) though cotton sowing lagged due to late onset of monsoon in Gujarat and Maharashtra. Importantly, with IMD and other weather forecasters reiterating higher-than-normal rainfall in August-September (vs. June-July), concerns over deficient rainfall and water reservoir levels have abated.
Spotlight will continue to be on the ongoing monsoon session of the parliament (reports suggest GST bill listed for discussion next week in Rajya Sabha) and corporate earnings trajectory. On GST bill, the stance of Congress party remains ambivalent at best: P Chidambaram, a senior Congress leader, stated that the party is not opposed to the bill and yet mentioned that the bill was flawed. He reiterated the party’s demand for three major changes including incorporating 18% rate of GST in the constitution bill.