Do not expect any correction in Indian market anytime soon
Geoffrey Dennis, UBS
Jul 29, 2016 | Source: CNBC TV 18
Fed Reserve’s latest decicion to hold rates: It will no longer be a rate hike in December but I think what the Fed did with this statement is they clearly left their options completely open, they obviously indicated economic risk has diminished and that is very clear to everybody since the last FOMC meeting, since the post UK referendum sell off that we had in markets. So we don’t think that this is enough to be sure that there is going to be a move in September. But we are still calling for December. Frankly we still think that if that is going to be wrong, it will be because the rate hikes pushed to next year rather than coming earlier.
On Liquidity: There are a number of factors to consider. Our view currently in our short-term to medium-term is that we are in the middle of the a significant liquidity move and liquidity can take care of markets, probably a lot further they should go from a valuation point of view and this liquidity we have developed after the UK referendum result which was such a substantial surprise to global markets with significant macro-implications on the negative side and since then we pushed the Fed rate hike to December, we think the Bank of Japan will ease again probably on Friday, we think ECB is going to extend QE, we think Bank of England (BOE) is going to cut interest rates to zero.
What we are beginning to see is there is a lot more interest than we have previously seen from global investors beginning to involved in the emerging markets. Markets are not cheap, the dollar moves higher, the Fed may bring their rate hike forward etc but right now short term to medium-term practically we think markets will go a little bit higher from here.
Do you get a sense that in the medium-term the market is vulnerable to a big correction? No, I don’t think so. I don’t think India is alone here, India has always begun from a relatively high valuation level. Our view is markets do well when the Fed is not raising rates, markets do poorly when the Fed is raising rates such as Indonesia, Taiwan and Russia. We would consider India to be part of that. India clearly is a growth story in the emerging markets but India typically has done well when the Fed is on a hold. So I think while this move continues, they may go a little bit further over the next two-three months or so, I think India possibly can rally further but you are right that fundamentally it is working a little bit overvalued but then a lot of emerging markets are anyway.
There is some hot money, there is always hot money but I think there is a bit of evidence of more long-term money coming in as well into EM as a whole and certainly into India also.