Tax reforms can push India ahead of emerging markets peers
Luke Spajic, Head of Portfolio Management, Emerging Asia, PIMCO
May 06, 2016 | Source: CNBC TV18
Weak global economic growth concerns have been priced in by the emerging markets: Weak global growth was well anticipated for 2016. This year (2016) will see the worst of growth fears. The emerging markets should start seeing better growth in the second half of 2016 and beyond.
Impact of Brexit : As we move towards this decision, uncertainty and risk premiums will rise. I don't think that the Brexit would have very large implications for these markets.
Outlook on India: We are neutral on Indian equities, as they look a bit expensive on some valuation frameworks. The government needs to speed up the reforms process in banking and revitalise lending and help in better credit decision making. If India can bring about tax reforms or land reforms, then equities will outperform.
Should importers like India be worried if oil rises further: The rebound is not necessarily worrying for India, given that it was trading at over $100 a barrel earlier. As oil inches towards the $50-60 range, a large chunk of the benefit will be gone, but it is not a cause for alarm.
On rupee versus other Asian currencies: We expect the rupee to outperform the other Asian currencies, given the stability in the economy and less volatility around the debt market. With India targeting to bring inflation down to 4%, there is more room for the local asset market to outperform, which is the attractiveness that we look for in a currency.
On the Fed rate-hike cycle: The focus now will be on June and July for their next hike. The Fed outlined labour market improvements and is suggestive of tighter tone. We think that one or two rate hikes this year are a reasonable base case.