Donald Trump victory why should the world be concerned:
It is a big event because of course Donald Trump has said publically that he will bring down North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), he will build a trade wall. If you remember in the 1930s America went into a great depression because all the countries built tariff walls against each other. In a world which is used to globalisation, free trade, movements across the border if you have a US President saying no to these things and the US is still the single most influential economic policy that would create a lot of disturbance in the global economic order.
View over next few months:
It has always been. Of course Brexit is coming right up, the Fed rate increases are coming right up and those are two very powerful global events that investors will vote on. They have a huge impact financially. Let us take the first question, will the Fed raise rates. They are now signalling that they will raise rates by another quarter basis points. Maybe in July, not in June, but perhaps in July after Brexit is known. So, the last time the Fed did that we had very unpleasant consequences across the world. Is the world ready now for higher interest rates. On balance I think not. So, if they do it there will be definitely turmoil in the markets. Markets are fairly resilient, they can absorb terrorist attacks, they can absorb bad economic data but somehow high interest rates is not something that the markets have learnt to deal with yet. So, that will be a problem.
Brexit poses another serious problem particularly to European market. If Britain leaves the Euro it will be leaving away a policy that has been crafted on both sides of the continent over the last 30-40 years and it will be on the net harmful if Britain decided to leave the European community. So, these are significant events but they are not going to derail the market as such. The one statistic that I always focus on even the 10th stock on the DOW is yielding 3.1 percent. In a world that is going toward headlong into negative interest rates if you have an equity yielding 3.1 percent, a safe dividend yield, that is a floor in the market. That is what happened in January and February when the market sold off. The yield bought investors back. In a world hungry for yields you have USD 10 trillion worth of negative bond issued by European community. Equities that yield three percent are not going to go down in a hurry.
Expecting a summer of volatility and turbulence will it provide entry opportunities once again for people:
Of course there will be, I have no doubt about that. In India the main leading factor would be the monsoon now. A good monsoon is now rapidly being priced into the market equation, a bad monsoon isn't. Not only is it a capital market tragedy, it is a human tragedy that is playing across in slow motion in India. As you see the parched lands and people thirsting for water in India in particular. Having said that I myself was a sceptic when the Modi government took into part two years ago but I have had reasons to revisit my hypothesis and my understanding and to be honest and candid with you I am particularly impressed by the way this government has gone about its business.