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Mark Matthews, Julius Baer
Apr 28, 2017 | Source: Economic Times
Indian markets are among the most expensive in the Asian region: I see more legs to the rally. The price is high, but so is the growth. For Asia, we will get around 10% earnings growth this year, but India will be probably twice that. There is a possibility of a pullback in the summer simply because the beginning has been so good. However, usually, if you have a good first quarter, the full year returns are positive. That trend has been seen around markets globally.
Will India do better than other Asian markets this year: It should outperform the region and I don't see why the Nifty can't get to 10,000 by the end of the year.
Which sectors do you think will lead this earnings rally: Commodities and financials will primarily lead the earnings growth because of the base effect in commodities and because of better margins and higher economic growth in the financials.
What are the key risks to your assumption of 10,000 on the Nifty by year end: The key risk would be largely external, such as the dollar going a lot higher. It has historically put pressure on emerging markets. The second risk is that of oil prices moving a lot higher.
What kind of reforms are you looking forward to in India now: In any country, it takes about two or three years for the impact of reforms to be felt. Bankruptcy code is a good example. That bill was passed quite a while ago, but it takes a long time to create a process to wind up dormant companies. It is not until 2019 that they will start winding up such companies, but it is critical that happens because then these dormant assets can start to be more productively used. That's just one example. The same holds true for power reforms and property sector reforms and property sector reforms; they are all going to take two or three years to work on the system. That's why it is important for the government to stick around for another administration for these reforms to take effect.
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