National Aluminium Company Ltd NSE  /  BSE

Non Ferrous Metals, Small Cap

27 Nov 2020 | 10:22 AM

38.85
1.15 (3.05%)

Independent Research

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Star Rating

Initiated on 01-01-70

Target Price

Performance parameters

  • Earnings Revision Trend

    Analysts negative since 10-Apr-2020

    Compared to seven weeks ago, the analysts have lowered their earnings per share estimates. This negative trend began 10-Apr-2020 at a price of 30.40.

  • Valuation Rating

    Fairly priced

    Based on its growth potential and our own criteria, at its current price the stock is fairly valued.

  • MT Tech Trend

    Trend neutral but previously negative (since 24-Apr-2020)

    The stock is currently trading close to its forty day moving average (changes between +1.75% and -1.75% are considered neutral). Prior to this (since 24-Apr-2020), the stock traded below its moving average. The confirmed Technical Reverse (Tech Reverse + 1.75%) point is 32.809.

  • 4W REL Performance

    Under pressure (vs. SENSEX30)

    The four week relative underperformance versus SENSEX30 is -7.120.

Risk parameters

  • Risk Zone

    Moderate

    Moderate, no change over 1 year.

  • Bear Market

    Average sensitivity to market corrections

    On average, the stock is likely to decline with the index.

  • Bad News

    Slight market sanction in case of specific pressure

    When the stock's pressure is specific, the market sanction on average is 383%.

  • Beta

    51 Low sensitivity to SENSEX30

    For 1% of index variation, the stock varies on average by 51%.

  • Correlation

    0.39 Weak correlation to SENSEX30

    Stock movements are strongly independent of index variations.

  • Value at Risk

    Rs.7.63 The medium term value at risk is estimated at 7.63 or 0.24000%

    The value at risk is estimated at 7.63. The risk is therefore 0.24000%. This value is based on the historical volatility for a medium time period (1 month) with a confidence of 95%.

Other parameters

  • LT Growth

    58.39 Current year to 2022 annualized estimate

    The annualized growth estimate is for the current year to 2022.

  • P/E Ratio

    14.84 Estimated PE for 2022

    The estimated PE is for the year 2022.

  • G/PE Ratio

    4.34 High discount to expected growth due to base effect

    A ratio (Forecasted Growth + Estimated Dividend Yield/ Estimated Price Earnings) higher than 1.6 often suggests the projected growth is a result of a base effect, meaning the company can often be in a turn around situation. In this case, the estimated PE is a better indicator of a stock's expected growth than the Long Term Growth (LT Growth).

  • Dividend Yield

    5.92% Dividend is not sufficiently covered by profits

    The twelve month estimated dividend yield represents 87.842% of earnings forecasts.

  • Global Evaluation

    Neutral

    The stock is classified in the neutral zone since 22-Nov-2019.