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India growth story solid, expect flows to come in
Jan Dehn, Head-Research, Ashmore Investment Management
Mar 11, 2016 | Source: CNBC-TV18

On Emerging markets:
Actually what I think is I am not particularly bearish on emerging market (EM) equities to be honest. US equities yes, I am a little bit worried about US equities but what is critical from the rest of the world's perspective particularly in the EM is that the dollar has started to go down and the dollar has been the all determining driver of global capital flows of the last four years. Enormal volumes of capital has been sucked out of EM because people have wanted to be long dollars but the dollar is now weakening and that means that not only will people look at valuations in EM and compare them to valuations in United States on a sort of a more level basis but if the dollar continues to decline then you are going to EM markets.
On India:
I do expect more flows to come into EM including into India. I think the Indian growth story is pretty solid. Once we see more capex spending coming in through the Budget, I think we are going to see that growth story have sustainability behind it and that is gradually going to pull retail investors as well as foreign investors back into EM.
The Indian market is about 8-9 % off its 52 week low - Do you think it has more steam?
Ultimately the Indian stock market should trade significantly higher than current levels but there is a very significant sort of cool drop coming in from the global environment right now which is probably going to hold back things a little bit. So, the recovery might be a little bit more gentle and so not take us to fair valuations immediately.



India
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