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Mark Mobius bets big on India, says it is the best market to invest in 2019
Mark Mobius, founding partner of Mobius Capital Partner
Dec 21, 2018 | Source: CNBC TV-18

On Federal Reserve’s statement: The Fed is going to continue with this disposal of all these assets that they had over these few years. So we can expect further rate hikes but it will be at a much slower pace in my view. Particularly since he (Jerome Powell) used the word uncertainty and since he said that there is a possibility he would see the slowdown in the US economy. So that gives him the excuse to slow down on this programme that he had. I think the emerging markets generally have discounted most of that because many of the EM currencies have come down dramatically and of course with that the indices at various parts have come down.
Fed is not changing its quantitative easing wind down programme, is that something to worry: I think the EMs have generally internalized that. However, the general uncertainty gives people pause to pour too much money into EMs. We have seen some money coming in but not to the extent that we would expect given the very good growth outlook for EMs but yes, the uncertainty is there and therefore you are going to see a lot of people being very hesitant to put more money into the markets.
On India: India looks very cheap and with the Brent down, this is very bullish for India. What is concerning to us is the political talk about the farmers loan forgiveness, which is a positive – of course it is very good for the farmers for the short-term but for the long-term, it is not a very good move I believe because it means that you are not looking at the basic problems, which is infrastructure and other aspects, which will help the farmers in the long run and then of course the angel tax is scary. These are concerns but they are relatively minor when you look at the overall situation in India looks quite bullish in our view.
Do you think India would stand out and decouple from the developed market slowdown in 2019? I believe that India could decouple and move forward in lieu of the incredible growth rate of the economy, one of the highest in the world and of course among the major countries now India stands up with China slowing down, India has a good chance to standout.
RBI is giving some Rs 2 trillion of bonds it is going to buy from December to March; do you think we will live to regret this? Of course, that is the price to pay. Now the only proviso is that if the economy picks up at a rapid pace then the government will be able to gather taxes in order to pay for this. However, otherwise definitely it is a real problem down the road for the government if they don’t achieve that high growth rate.
What part of India do you like? I like the smaller banks, the non-bank financial institutions and the medium and small sized banks. There are some opportunities there. On a regional basis, you are seeing some interesting things happening. So that would be a place where we would look.
Other than financials, what interests you? What interests us is the consumer side because with this loan forgiveness of course you are going to see consumption skyrocket and you are going to see many opportunities in the consumer area. So I would say with the increase in consumption, companies benefiting from that would be on our target.



India
NRI


