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Great time to accumulate stocks between now and the elections
Harsha Upadhyaya, CIO, Kotak MF
Aug 03, 2018 | Source: Mint

On the monetary policy: As far as monetary policy was concerned, I think it was more or less along the expected lines. From here on, in the short term, we do not expect interest rates to move much.
On auto sector: I will be cautious on the auto sector. I think for the last seven calendar years, the sector has outperformed the index. When you see such a strong cycle, you should always be careful about continuation of that and, hence, you need to be watchful of valuations.
On earnings season so far: In case of IT, retail and private sector banks, all companies delivered in-line or slightly better than expected results. As far as consumer staples and discretionary were concerned, they were okay, except for auto.
On earnings estimate for FY19: If you look at FY19, the consensus estimates for Nifty earnings is around Rs. 600, whereas internally we believe that achieving that would be very difficult given the fact that 50% of incremental growth was supposed to come from corporate banks and financial names.
On markets: Purely based on fundamentals and earnings growth, it would be difficult to expect large amount of returns from markets at this point of time. Our view is between now and the elections: It would be a great time to accumulate stocks and, maybe, wait for another three years to get good returns on that.
On flows for July: Flows have been moderated quite a bit compared to the beginning of the year levels. Clearly, there has been large amount of redemptions, which have taken away much of the sheen from equity flows.



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