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'Reforms, reforms, and reforms' is the theme for investing under Modi 2.0
Mark Mobius, Founder, Mobius Capital Partners
May 31, 2019 | Source: ET

How do you view Mr Modi’s win: We are really in an amazing situation where he has got the mandate to move ahead with his reforms programme and that to me is quite exciting. Now, would he be able to take advantage of that? We must realise that there are all kinds of bureaucratic and political barriers which prevent him from doing absolutely everything that he wants to do and if he can do 20% of what he is planning, that is very, very good. It is a good opportunity and so I am quite excited about the result.
Where does India stand in your emerging market preference list? Very high, because we are in a situation now where we can see immense growth in India. Of course, we have already seen that growth. This country is growing at a fast rate and in addition, we are in a situation where the Chinese market is not doing that well, not only because of the trade dispute with the US but also because it is very difficult for them to maintain the kind of growth that we have seen in the last 10 years. So, India is really looking very bright. Among all the emerging markets performances, India stands out. It is really jumping ahead of the others. That is very important.
Reforms wish list: I would say the first one would be employment regulation because you’ve got millions -- in fact, the latest number I read is there about 100 million migrant workers moving around India looking for work. So, there needs to be a reform of the labour laws so that we can see much higher employment. I would say that is number one because the Indian workers are as good, if not better than any workers in the world because they got the language abilities. There is no reason why you can have total employment in India and if you could release that tremendous labour force power, you can see an incredible boom in the Indian economy.
Sectors that you would prefer to buy into: We like companies that can take advantage of the infrastructure building that is taking place. By the way, that is the second point I want to make about Modi’s programme. That is getting him to have a much bigger infrastructure programme. He started a lot of infrastructure projects but they have not moved ahead at the pace that they should.
The other sector I like is the non-bank financials companies (NBFCs) because of the greater degree of bankable population as result of identity card programme. The fact is that the government is making direct transfers to people and that these people have become much more bankable. The non-bank financials-- as long as they can garner the lowest segment of the obvious group which is growing at a pretty fast pace, would be another one.
Expectations from RBI policy: For quite some time, I have believed that the Reserve Bank should lower rates because the gap between inflation and the interest rates in India is just too wide and they should not be so bearish with regards to that. I really feel that they have got to change and hopefully this new guy in the driver’s seat will be able to do that.
Theme for investing under Modi 2.0: It will be reforms, reforms, and reforms. I mean all of the changes that are taking place augur very well for changes in the Indian economy and releasing its incredible energy that you can get from what is happening. So I would say it is all about reforms.
Consumption stocks: They are a little expensive and it is difficult to find consumption stocks that are really cheap but we continue to look. We are looking at some things now and it is not easy because of the popularity of that sector but nevertheless we want to find something in that sector if at all possible.



India
NRI


