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Aditya Narain, MD & India Strategist, Citigroup
Jan 07, 2016 | Source: CNBC-TV18
• View on whether the market is heading towards cyclical bear phase: I don’t think we are in the middle of a cyclical bear phase but I do think that it is going to be up and down for a while. So, I think a) you just got to live with a little bit more volatility and b) given that the year has started so weakly you will probably see little bit more of it being up fronted. However, a cyclical bear face is a lot deeper than what I have in mind actually.
• China currency devaluation: To some extent we have been a little cautious on the currency; we have seen a certain amount of downside there. We didn’t think it would come in such a jerky manner; in fact out initial read was that it would all happen then and after that we thought it would stretch out a bit but yes it has tended to be very jerky in the immediate term. However, we do see a certain amount of weakness on the yuan.
• Does china’s week economy means global weakness in 2016 : I think it is largely that China is adjusting and people are making big calls on whether the adjustment is huge or that the bulk of it has been done. In our view, it is effectively adjusting and that is why you are tending to see a certain amount of volatility. On the way down volatility invariably tends to get a little exaggerated and that is what you are getting a sense of now.
• Sense on bottom-up stock picking : I think in some senses that bottom-up will continue to be a theme. However, one of the themes for the year is that it is going to be a thematic; it is not going to be a big theme that you are actually going to seek. You are going to have multiple themes and you are going to have multiple drivers none of which will be strong enough for you to say that I am following a capex recovery or I am following an interest rate trade per se but you will have a mix of these actually spread across which I think will effectively provide you the market upside and that is where I think you will also effectively get stock upside. So, I think it will still rely on stocks, it won’t have a big theme but there will probably be multiple themes to actually ride on to.
• Replacement of FII’s with DII’s: I think two things, one I think the base has flipped from being foreign money based to now increasingly being domestic money based. I think the big change really is that the base has flipped. The second bit is a lot of the domestic money that has actually come in over the last 6-12 months has actually not done as badly as the top-down sense is. A lot of the market has actually done well; a lot of the smaller and midcaps have done even better which is where a lot of this money is going in. So, I don’t see that as an immediate risk of any form that people have a lot of money has come in and they are effectively losing a) I think these flows are going to be structurally larger and longer b) I don’t think they have lost money for them to start coming out at this point of time. However, if you continue to see huge rallies in some parts of these markets and at a point in time much is further down the line, you see a drop off then there could be a little bit of a stagger. However, I would not see it as too much of a risk, clearly not at this point in time. In fact, the big thing is the floor base has probably switched and unless there is something dramatic with the markets or the economy I think that will hold actually for a length of time. I might add, let us not dismiss foreign flows at this point in time, the base has flipped but the icing on either side is going to be the foreign flows.
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