Don't buy at one go, but time to start accumulating
Madhusudan Kela , Chief Investment Strategist, Reliance Capital
Nov 18, 2015 | Source: Business Line
• The ongoing turmoil in global markets now has to do with more than just problems in China, as new variables like negative interest rates and strengthening yen are getting added to the equation. Secondly, this fall of crude oil -- while we may say that it had a huge positive impact on India but the way it impacts the global flows, we were just calculating, this is like one trillion dollar every year if I calculate from last year's average to this year, if I take USD 25-30. The argument is that this oil price ultimately goes to someone and it benefits someone. While that argument is right, it doesn’t come in the financial markets. The money is getting taken away from the financial markets but it may not necessarily come in the financial market at the same time.
• The global pain has just begun and that worries me more than anything else. The fact is that now we are getting into a range, which is what I was saying that anything around 7,000-7,200, we will see enough panic even in good companies. Are we starting to see that? Very clearly, from a long-term investor point of view, these are volatile times but they are excellent entry opportunities but because the global situation is still very patchy. I am not suggesting that you go ahead and buy everything at one go but these are good times if you are looking from a little long, it is a two-three year perspective, we are not even talking of five years and 10 years. Even from a two-three year perspective, we are getting excellent entries into a lot of good high quality companies.
• Earnings as a point has been very disappointing to say the least when we started year 2015-2016, we talked of 15-17 % earnings growth but including this quarter, at best earnings are flat if not a tad decline for this year. So that is the overall earnings picture. A lot of these earnings are also looking bad because of the cleanup of the system itself like public sector banks. However, I would say that in a select pocket like some of the pharmaceutical companies have reported good set of numbers. Stocks are down in spite of excellent numbers, in spite of excellent conference calls, stocks are still down. So you will have opportunities to choose stocks. Some of the private sector banks, they are clearly coming in the range.
• We are not seeing any redemption pressure but obviously people are fearful and there is no reason for them not to be fearful. We have been putting money for last one year consistently local guys have been putting money and then extent of decline is so accute, obviously there will be fear but I think we are not seeing any redemption and my message is very loud and clear but these prices are being made for entry and not for exit.
• The whole point is that we are expecting earnings growth to get revised. Now the consensus is that from the next 12 months earnings growth will be minimum 15-17 %.