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We have got a perfect storm in terms of credit, equities and macros
Andrew Holland, Avendus Capital
Sep 28, 2018 | Source: ET Now

On Current volatility in the markets: Both the RBI and SEBI put out virtually a joint statement saying things were okay, to calm the markets but maybe there is more than what meets the eye. That is what markets are also thinking at the moment. Generally we have just the rumour and counter rumour going around about what is happening. The problem is that we do not know what is going to happen within the mutual funds in terms of any pressure to sell because investors in bond front in particular do not usually expect to be sitting on losses.
So risk, which was not being baked into any parts of the market, whether it is credit or equity, are now starting to bake in. The risk is obviously of higher interest rates, weaker dollar and hence a weaker rupee. Plus the oil price, given the rupee depreciation, is getting close to 100 per litre. All these are not good for the macro. We have got the perfect storm in terms of credit, equities and the macros.
Do you believe that the valuations are better placed or are they more reasonable than before and are adequately priced? We are looking at the entry points for quite a number of larger NBFCs, the quality ones. But in markets like this, do not forget we are 5.5% down from the top. It cannot correct more. As we already have got our own problems, if I throw in any global wobbles over the next few weeks as well, then the correction that we are seeing will continue.
Let everything come out that needs to come out and when they need to be and then you look at the in terms of what you want to do. You might miss the first 5-10%. It does not matter in the longer term if you are getting a reasonable entry point.
How much more pain going ahead? India has been one of the better performing markets. But, obviously in dollar terms, it has been kind of flat. But it is one of the few markets in emerging markets which have done very well. If we got our own problems now which obviously investors were not banking on, then obviously money will be taken off the table again. So, I think, India is in a difficult phase where it has actually outperformed all of the emerging markets and valuations were stretched anyway. It does not take much time for news to move the risk needle and that is what we have today.
What worries me is that I can understand that a comedown because valuations are high but this is has to do with things which we are not quite sure how it is all going to land and who is in trouble and who is not in trouble. That is what the markets are working on. It is that bit of fear. I am not saying panic but fear of the unknown which is getting a lot of investors spooked at the moment.
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