Markets factoring in big pick-up in earnings cycle for 12-18 months
Gautam Chhaochharia, Managing Director and Head of Research UBS
Mar 29, 2019 | Source: Economic Times
Near term To Medium term Outlook: There are two parts. One is the near term --for the next couple of months -- and one is the typical call he take for a full year. In this case, the two-month call is also relevant because the global liquidity/Fed outlook which ties in with what he is seeing locally and RBI being much more relaxed about liquidity and interest rates than last year. So, along with this factor, the biggest driver for Indian markets locally for the last few months has been the local political outlook, whether Mr. Modi is going to win or not. That outlook in the market participants’ minds seems to have changed after the Pulwama incident who think Modi will come back for the second term. These two factors will defend RBI’s broader liquidity part as well as local political outlook. For the next couple of months, the market’s outlook seems positive or it will have momentum irrespective of valuations or underlying fundamentals.
Earnings of FY20: Earnings will rebound, optically driven by financials. Financials earnings will rebound because of the reversal in the credit cost or NPL cycle. Being a part of the index. That will drive the broader markets earnings trajectory. But that will be largely financials driven and optically driven from a NPL cycle perspective. It does not suggest a pick-up or the beginning of a next earnings trajectory yet. Except for financials. It is still going to be a single digit earnings growth market.
Investment Pockets: The From a risk-reward perspective, In terms of value, he sees value from a very selective, stock-specific mode rather than broader market perspective. Private corporate banks which are a consensus trade right now, and are well owned, but he still see some value there selectively in some names. Post elections, where he sees value would be oil and gas companies -- both downstream as well as gas companies. Those are pockets of value.
IT services is more of a relative separate call. It may not work for the next two months but given our risk reward for the next one year, he does see opportunities there. Auto names have to be chosen very selectively. In the broader consumer space, obviously there is no value, but the entire focus of government post elections on a rural India is an extremely supportive narrative for consumer sector.
View on Pharma: Pharma has always been a more individual company story rather than a broad sector story and that still remains the case. There are companies which could look interesting but from a sector perspective, big theme for the last few years was the US generics where the worst may or may not be behind us. The sector may be bottoming out. Having said that, he does not see that US generics opportunities coming back as a big earnings growth driver in a hurry for the broader sector. Individual companies which have used the recent downturn to take care of the right product mix along with some innovations, there could be opportunities in terms of investors looking at ideas there. But the broader sector opportunity still looks difficult or not visible yet.
View on Aviation: Looking at macro perspective, it is kind of strange that in an industry where he is seeing such strong volume growth, where crude oil price has also been reasonably stable, he is still seeing large companies struggling. It is not a great scenario for the industry or a great comforting factor for the industry from investor perspective. Hopefully, something comes out of it sooner rather than later. There are banks involved, and some way, it is ahead of elections and so that is not a go