Too many changes and many more “either-or” situations abound on the horizon, so instead of chasing the next event, we take a step back to briefly ruminate on the tremors and shifts that swarm us. At the end we provide a list of milestones by select sectors.

On the tech front, the age of software seems to have fully taken shape with powerful new concepts like “IoT”, “AI” etc. These can drastically change the way we live and do business. But, they can be excitingly gaped at from a distance as they move from frontier industries to mainstream i.e. there is time to catch up. In fact, their success depends on our adoption, an almost democratic quality.

However, there are disruptive forces which impacts mainstream more than frontier, and reproachfully at that.

Geo politics for instance is starting to look unfamiliar – the US and Russia could be friends in arms, the US is batting for nationalism while China is rooting for globalization, Japan is turning less pacifist, the British are not European, Germany & France are facing guerilla style strikes at home, countries are being annexed and large swathes of the Middle East is in the control of a violent band.

Two things come to mind. This is probably a sign of protest between the haves and have-nots of globalization and the world’s policewoman shirking her self-imposed duties. Whatever be the reason, commerce will have to navigate tricky waters.  

At home, we’ve had our own challenge to status quo, which can transform the way we transact. It has set-off numerous innovations that will bring digital even to less literate. At the same time, entrepreneurs whose habits have been challenged (SMEs) will have to decide on how to conduct their businesses in the future.

Expect every action to face a counter effort (trade war, protests) to reinforce the familiar, so a period of volatility is possible. Also a lull, time to think things through and let the dust settle, before the action begins, is likely.

Here is a list of milestones to help steady the vision:

IT: Adapting to 15+ new technologies that are impacting the industry

Real estate: Industry consolidation post RERA

Auto: Meeting global emission & safety norms, rising shared mobility and improving urban transport

Pharma: Meeting higher quality standards and threat of nationalism in the US

Retail: Realizing cost and benefit from increasing formalization and GST

Banking: Recapitalization, consolidation, new entrants and private investment pick-up

Agriculture: Yield and farm incomes post DBT in fertilizer and E-nam

Oil & gas: OPEC commitment vs. return of shale.