Long-term bullish on India; China data constructive
Mark Matthews, Head of Research, Bank Julius Baer
Oct 07, 2016 | Source: CNBC TV 18
How would you approach emerging markets from here on? Over the last two weeks, the climate globally has become a bit stranger, between the escalation of tensions between India and Pakistan and the Deutsche Bank situation and now, we are really getting into the final stages of the US election with the debates between the candidates kicking off last week. So, the appetite for risk has been somewhat diminished, but I still think that if we look further out, the most important thing for the emerging markets is that the Chinese data has continued to be very constructive. We see that over the weekend with their purchasing managers' index (PMI) number and I noticed that gaming revenues in Macau which is an interesting barometer as well, for Chinese retail spending. We are up for the second month, for the first time in two years, so the support of the Chinese economy recovering should be enough for emerging markets as well as the oil price. My inclination is that the oil price will remain quite firm as we approach the listing of Aramco next year.
Where is India in the pecking order? We really have not changed our long-term feeling toward the country which has been bullish for the last couple of years since Mr. Modi became Prime Minister. And I think that the underlying trend which is the very strong consumer driven by the large population and youthful population and you couple that with the civil servant pay hikes and the introduction of the goods and services tax (GST) and then in the states where the BJP are in control, like Maharashtra, the rolling out of land acquisition, it is still a backdrop which is fine to be invested in India.