Past Data Support Nifty Target of 12k before April-May
Laurence Balanco, Global Technical Analyst at CLSA
Feb 16, 2018 | Source: ET
Within the global context we should see some kind of a short-term pullback, but if you look at the setup of the breakout that we saw in September 2016, that does support a 12,000 target before the April-May time period. Again, a pullback in the Nifty would be a buying opportunity.
What we have seen historically is that high momentum is not typically a sign of a major peak. Typically, what happens before you get a major turning event, you get a high momentum peak, you will see a correction and then you will see new highs. When you get new highs without momentum confirmation, that’s a formal worrying sign. The bullish trend in global markets is intact. If you are looking through the first-half of 2018, we should see further gains.
The bank index is still our lead sector. The interesting thing is two sectors — technology and pharmaceuticals, have been big underperformers for the past two-and-a-half years are starting to stabilise and improve. They won’t be a drag on the index as they have been for the past two and a half years.
We do think there will be further strength in INR. In the very short term, we could see a rebound back to 64-and-a-half, 65 areas, but that would be an opportunity to buy rupee.
If you look at the new high that the S&P had made recently, it was associated with a higher VIX reading. What that is suggesting is that while we still see further gains into April-May, on a longer term perspective, that’s also likely to be associated with a pickup in volatility. Historically, low periods of volatility are followed by the rise in volatility. The divergence between the S&P and the VIX right now is just the indication of pickup in volatility that should likely accelerate past the April-May period.
The more significant thing for global investors, if you look at the relative performance of the US markets vs MSCI World as a benchmark, in dollar terms, is the US market is underperforming. Our expectation is for emerging markets to continue to outperform even with a 3,100 upside target for the S&P. We think emerging markets will go up more and the US market uptrend is far more mature than in emerging markets.
For global markets, a break above 3% for US 10-year yield will be a headwind. In the short term, I can see the yield continuing to trend towards that resistance area but if we have a break above it, then that would be a headwind for global equities.
We have broken below a support area that was at 91-92 on USD index. We see further dollar weakness towards the 83 area. So our message on the dollar is that any short-term rebound would be a selling opportunity.
The $70 area for Brent and $65 for WTI are key resistance areas. At this point, oil is set up for a correction and consolidation from here. It will be a $10 trading range, at a higher level than what we saw in 2016; but in the very near term, it’s vulnerable to a pullback.