Global rally may continue; Fed likely to hike in June
Ian Hui Global Market Strategist, JP Morgan Asset Management
Dec 31, 2015 | Source: CNBC TV 18
• The catalyst for outperformance of Indian market depends on earnings and positive news on the reforms front
• Views on Janet Yellen speech: I do believe that it has to be taken very dovishly. She did mention that they are very cautious on their outlook for raising rates in the US. That would most likely mean that an April rate hike is probably off the cards at the moment. We think the next rate hike, I should suggest, for the US is probably going to come in June.
• Rally in the month of march view on market trend in April: For the moment, I think that Yellen’s comments has boosted the sentiments in the market. It does mean that we will see a weaker US dollar, which should be good for emerging markets especially combined with what we have seen in most of the other markets, commodities have stabilised, the China issue -- with the worries about the slowdown and the Yuan -- seem to have stabilised as well. So, as long as those three major issues -- what is happening in the US with the US dollar, what is happening of the China and the Chinese Yuan, what is happening in the commodities market -- don’t flare up again, I do think we will see a continuation of the rally. However, if they do see issues of the oil prices or the commodity market falling again, a bit of instability in China, a bit more hawkishness from the Fed then we might see an end to it. However, for the moment, it does seem like they are quite supportive of the markets.
• Views on Indian markets: I still think we are in a cyclical downturn for the earnings there. We are still waiting for an improvement. Also, if we see more positive political reforms, we should see a catalyst. That should boost the India market upwards compared to what we are seeing with the rest of the emerging markets..
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