India an Excellent Investment Destination with Formalization & Financialisation - AxisDirect
Teresa Barger, Carticia Capital
Jun 30, 2017 | Source: CNBC TV 18
From my point of view, there are two things: formalisation and financialisation. So on the financialisation, 98% of all the money in demonetization went back to banks and from banks it has been going into mutual funds, pension funds and insurance companies because of this wonderful fact in India that 30 percent of the population is millennial and they control 70 percent of household income. And so, these are now coming into savings age and they are putting their money into these financial products. And a lot of that, again from a Modi reform, more money going into these institutional investors as they are allowed to go into the stock market and the capital markets in general.
Similarly, we are seeing a financialisation as the money is out of the gold bars, cash and into something that is really good for the economy.
I think we might have a little bit of a rocky time when the goods and services tax (GST) starts from next month. It is not going to be perfect. The IT backbone for it, I think is very interesting, but it is quite ambitious and I have never seen an IT programme ever, the ambitious one that was on time and on budget. So like all of them, it is going to take some time. So I personally think we might have a rocky time this summer going into the fall, but I still believe in the long-term story from the financialisation and also formalisation. And I think the formalisation is going to be very important.
We are invested in a consumer goods company that we believe will benefit from formalisation as the unorganized sector now has trackable transactions and these are all then taxable and they are on very thin margins. If they have to pay tax, they cannot survive. And that is terrible for those businesses, but is great for the Achilles heel of India which is productivity. And so, if we get more productivity as we have got someone like Page Industries- 60 percent of their competitors are in the unorganized sector and cannot survive in an age of GST and actual tax collection. And so customers will be able to buy underwear that is made first of all, well, by people who obey the environment laws, the social laws as well as pay taxes and they will be at a cheap price. And this will enhance the productivity. There are consumer goods areas that we are invested in- there is another portfolio company we did not mention which is Marico and we think that will also benefit from formalisation.
India is still the best investment destination. It is still the best one because reforms are ongoing. The formalisation is a huge theme that is the biggest in India. And financialistion is a huge theme that is biggest in India. And no other country has that combination of those three things.