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Muhammad Aurangzeb, JP Morgan
Aug 24, 2017 | Source: ET Bureau
We continue to see a very strong growth momentum in India. Our business has experienced double digit growth in the past 12-18 months. We see the implementation of RERA (Real Estate Regulation and Development Act, 2016) as a major positive. And then there are the building blocks that the government is providing with recent regulatory changes, paving a sustainable, long term growth roadmap for businesses in India.
There are clear signs that our global clients are showing interest in investing in India. The business confidence is at an all-time high. We are having meaningful dialogues with Indian corporate houses, particularly on the topic of outbound deals. Due to the size and breadth of our businesses, we are able to go deeper and wider with our clients in India, regardless of their aspirations. We are supporting them from the corporate banking perspective by providing financing for acquisitions and a wide range of other services cash management, liquidity management and risk management.
There could be some short-term growth implications due to developments such as the GST roll-out, which may cause some dislocations in the near term. But they are necessary to build sustainable growth for India in the long term. So, we continue to be very upbeat on this market.
For India, the markets have been preoccupied with a flurry of regulatory changes in the past year, be it the GST (Goods and Service Tax), rollout or the bankruptcy law etc. Our view is that the developments are positive and have put the economy on a sustainable, long-term growth trajectory. India and China remain the key growth engines for Asia.
While there continues to be concerns about the China slowdown, the overall global macroeconomic picture is improving. China's better-than-expected economic expansion for the second quarter is encouraging, and bodes well for the rest of Asia. We do not see a hard landing as Chinese authorities have flexibility with policies. The economy is transitioning toward a consumption-based model, which is ultimately a more sustainable approach for growth.
In our view, we see China as a two speed economy. On the one hand, it has state-owned enterprises, which are continuing to deleverage to adopt a more sustainable capital structure.Then you have the new economy, led by e-commerce giants like Alibaba. These companies are growing at a rate of 30-40% and will continue to expand, both domestically and overseas. They will require banking support and solutions from global financial services firms like us.
Indeed, US interest rates are heading higher. We have seen the US Fed raise rates three times since last December. Our house view is that there will be another increase by the end of this year. But overall, the pace of tightening has been gradual, and with the US inflation remaining mild, we aren't expecting any aggressive moves from the US central bank. From the corporates' perspective, they are still taking advantage of the ample liquidity and low rates.
At J P Morgan, we continue to be bullish on the prospects of India and remain very committed to the market. Our investment over the past year is a testament to this. We opened physical branches in Delhi, Chennai and Bengaluru last year to provide better support to the local and multinational corporates.
There's a strong push towards digitization in India as well, which plays to our strength. We launched the virtual branch in India in late 2015, the first one to roll out globally. With this service, our clients can submit documents (primarily on cross-border payments), complete statutory payments, and enjoy cheque and cash service initiation.
Investing
Insurance
India
Indian Markets
Macro Economy
GST
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